Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 13?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 82¢ · $815 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$814.75
$93.87
73.3¢ → 82¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $415.6 | $472.07 | +$56.47 | 63% 2143-1256 (3399) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $128.25 | $138.61 | +$10.36 | 35% 414-754 (1168) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $68.5 | $83 | +$14.5 | 40% 3249-4894 (8143) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $57.65 | $66.23 | +$8.58 | 53% 6080-5448 (11528) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $23.1 | $24.9 | +$1.8 | 26% 118-337 (455) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $21.18 | $23.55 | +$2.37 | 76% 675-216 (891) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.68 | $4.82 | +$1.13 | 65% 4172-2205 (6377) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $7.38 | $1.51 | -$1.35 | 12% 37-268 (305) |
Invested
$415.6
Value
$472.07
PnL
+$56.47
Record
63%
2143-1256 (3399)
Invested
$128.25
Value
$138.61
PnL
+$10.36
Record
35%
414-754 (1168)
Invested
$68.5
Value
$83
PnL
+$14.5
Record
40%
3249-4894 (8143)
Invested
$57.65
Value
$66.23
PnL
+$8.58
Record
53%
6080-5448 (11528)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$1.8
Record
26%
118-337 (455)
Invested
$21.18
Value
$23.55
PnL
+$2.37
Record
76%
675-216 (891)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$4.82
PnL
+$1.13
Record
65%
4172-2205 (6377)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$7.38
Value
$1.51
PnL
-$1.35
Record
12%
37-268 (305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.