Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on November 12?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$31.2

Combined PnL

-$84.75

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$19.78

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes10 traders

Total Value$11.42

Total Shares1,038

Combined PnL-$84.55

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.78	-$0.2	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$42.09	$2.7	-$21.21	26% 866-2483 (3349)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17	$2.06	-$14.94	68% 442-211 (653)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.12	$1.95	-$14.17	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.51	$1.76	-$12.75	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.87	$1.68	-$12.19	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.71	$0.57	-$4.14	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.89	$0.23	-$1.66	28% 530-1372 (1902)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.22	-$1.6	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.41	$0.17	-$1.24	20% 782-3094 (3876)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$0.09	-$0.64	40% 1374-2022 (3396)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.09

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$21.21

Record

26%

866-2483 (3349)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$14.94

Record

68%

442-211 (653)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.12

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$14.17

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.51

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$12.75

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.87

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$12.19

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$4.14

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.66

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.6

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$1.24

Record

20%

782-3094 (3876)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.64

Record

40%

1374-2022 (3396)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.