Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 10?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $278 held · ends Nov 10

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$277.53

Combined PnL

-$38.95

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 51.5¢

-16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$191.44

Total Shares378

Combined PnL-$41.31

Yes2 traders

Total Value$86.09

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$2.37

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 63.8¢	$190.88	$151.11	-$39.78	55% 29-24 (53)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$62.79	$64.84	+$2.05	— 0-14 (14)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$22.69	$21.87	-$0.82	77% 44-13 (57)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.3¢	$20.92	$21.24	+$0.32	68% 43-20 (63)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$7.98	$7.27	-$0.71	46% 42-50 (92)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 50¢	$4.85	$4.94	+$0.1	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.76	$3.65	-$0.11	43% 34-45 (79)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	6% 9-142 (151)

241532532432

Invested

$190.88

Value

$151.11

PnL

-$39.78

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.79

Value

$64.84

PnL

+$2.05

Record

—

0-14 (14)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.69

Value

$21.87

PnL

-$0.82

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.92

Value

$21.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$0.71

Record

46%

42-50 (92)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.11

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

9-142 (151)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.