Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 7?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 14¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 7

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$75.9

Combined PnL

$14.49

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$48.08

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$15.15

No2 traders

Total Value$27.25

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$0.66

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$32.22	$47.25	+$15.03	38% 869-1446 (2315)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$22.74	$22.18	-$0.57	58% 21422-15550 (36972)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$5.16	$5.07	-$0.09	54% 10678-9209 (19887)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$5.51	$0.83	+$0.13	17% 4509-22111 (26620)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.22

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$15.03

Record

38%

869-1446 (2315)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.74

Value

$22.18

PnL

-$0.57

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

10678-9209 (19887)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.51

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

17%

4509-22111 (26620)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.