Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 10?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 75¢ · $427 held · ends Nov 10

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$427.5

Combined PnL

-$23.39

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 74.5¢

-6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$404.46

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$27.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$23.04

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$3.84

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 82.1¢	$275.57	$257.46	-$27.06	55% 29-24 (53)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$61.09	$60.74	-$0.35	68% 43-20 (63)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$32	$31.63	-$0.37	77% 44-13 (57)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$19.2	$23.04	+$3.84	— 2-16 (18)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$24.72	$14.12	+$0.11	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$12.76	$12.93	+$0.18	28% 55-139 (194)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$10.52	$10.57	+$0.04	45% 53-66 (119)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74¢	$9.37	$9.5	+$0.13	42% 16-22 (38)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.7	$3.8	+$0.1	44% 46-59 (105)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.7	+$0	8% 3-37 (40)

241532532432

Invested

$275.57

Value

$257.46

PnL

-$27.06

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$61.09

Value

$60.74

PnL

-$0.35

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$31.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.2

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$3.84

Record

—

2-16 (18)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.72

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.76

Value

$12.93

PnL

+$0.18

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.52

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$0.04

Record

45%

53-66 (119)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.37

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0

Record

3-37 (40)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.