Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 10?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $444 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$443.76
-$0.88
97.1¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 97¢ | $349.2 | $348.66 | -$0.54 | 55% 29-24 (53) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $41.23 | $41.16 | -$0.06 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $15.7 | $15.52 | -$0.17 | 53% 86-75 (161) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $9.95 | $9.92 | -$0.03 | 6% 9-141 (150) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.61 | $9.6 | -$0.01 | 46% 42-50 (92) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $8.73 | $8.71 | -$0.02 | 44% 46-59 (105) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.13 | $5.11 | -$0.03 | 45% 53-66 (119) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.09 | $5.08 | -$0.02 | 39% 51-79 (130) |
Invested
$349.2
Value
$348.66
PnL
-$0.54
Record
55%
29-24 (53)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.23
Value
$41.16
PnL
-$0.06
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
$15.7
Value
$15.52
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
86-75 (161)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$9.92
PnL
-$0.03
Record
6%
9-141 (150)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
42-50 (92)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$8.71
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
46-59 (105)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$0.03
Record
45%
53-66 (119)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.02
Record
39%
51-79 (130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $348.66
Lucerys
No — $41.16
ghorrock
No — $15.52
smallreceipt
No — $9.92
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $9.6
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $8.71
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.11
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $5.08