Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 7?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $731 held · ended Nov 7

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$731.33

Combined PnL

$96.3

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$41.89

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$71.47

Yes4 traders

Total Value$81.99

Total Shares207

Combined PnL+$24.83

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$751.73	$550.93	-$6.41	37% 903-1557 (2460)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.2¢	$66.14	$282.22	+$51.77
└ No leg	Noavg 70.6¢	$326.88	$268.71	-$58.18
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$60.61	$56.52	-$4.09	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.6¢	$34.22	$36.08	+$1.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.6¢	$26.39	$20.45	-$5.94
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 19.4¢	$23.99	$39.67	+$71.53	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$62.54	$31.85	-$5.1	13% 589-3865 (4454)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$8.14	$28.8	+$16.8	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$11.88	$18.69	+$10.85	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$5.5	$2.64	+$2.28	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.28	$2.22	-$0.06	52% 31275-29168 (60443)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$751.73

Value

$550.93

PnL

-$6.41

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

Both legs:

Yes$66.1411.2¢+$51.77

No$326.8870.6¢-$58.18

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$60.61

Value

$56.52

PnL

-$4.09

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Both legs:

No$34.2263.6¢+$1.85

Yes$26.3942.6¢-$5.94

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$23.99

Value

$39.67

PnL

+$71.53

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.54

Value

$31.85

PnL

-$5.1

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$16.8

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$10.85

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$2.28

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

31275-29168 (60443)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.