Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 4?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 20¢ · $474 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$473.82
-$42.14
37¢ → 19.5¢
-47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $623.59 | $209.94 | -$18.37 | 44% 776-973 (1749) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $147.26 | $105.74 | -$41.52 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63¢ | $81.05 | $104.2 | +$23.15 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $227.54 | $163.44 | -$11.82 | 15% 435-2445 (2880) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.1¢ | $111.31 | $120.13 | +$10.23 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $65.35 | $43.31 | -$22.05 | |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $116.81 | $79.5 | -$37.31 | 58% 2455-1793 (4248) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $44.41 | $8.88 | -$4.15 | 58% 18932-13926 (32858) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $10.92 | $6.69 | -$4.22 | 40% 2090-3134 (5224) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $1.75 | $5.29 | +$3.54 | 20% 2524-10014 (12538) |
Invested
$623.59
Value
$209.94
PnL
-$18.37
Record
44%
776-973 (1749)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$227.54
Value
$163.44
PnL
-$11.82
Record
15%
435-2445 (2880)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.81
Value
$79.5
PnL
-$37.31
Record
58%
2455-1793 (4248)
Invested
$44.41
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$4.15
Record
58%
18932-13926 (32858)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$6.69
PnL
-$4.22
Record
40%
2090-3134 (5224)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$3.54
Record
20%
2524-10014 (12538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.