Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 3?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 99¢ · $700 held · ended Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$700.27

Combined PnL

$41.2

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 99.3¢

+148% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$553.62

Total Shares1,201

Combined PnL+$65.04

No7 traders

Total Value$146.64

Total Shares239

Combined PnL-$23.85

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 34.8¢	$307.72	$380.24	+$68.1	44% 754-963 (1717)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$141.29	$113.74	-$7.02	16% 427-2305 (2732)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$98.41	$96.17	-$2.24	59% 1689-1190 (2879)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 97.1¢	$33.03	$32.08	-$0.95	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$25.11	$15.34	-$9.78	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$12.2	+$1.2	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 94.2¢	$12.77	$11.72	-$1.05	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 37.1¢	$9.64	$11.18	+$1.54	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 98.4¢	$9.22	$8.68	-$0.54	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$5.16	$5.5	+$0.34	40% 980-1494 (2474)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 98.2¢	$5.54	$5.11	-$0.44	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$24.84	$4.3	-$5.55	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$2.66	$2.94	+$0.28	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.48	$0.68	+$0.2	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$1.28	$0.22	-$1.06	30% 2095-4887 (6982)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$2	$0.16	-$1.84	54% 22035-19135 (41170)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$307.72

Value

$380.24

PnL

+$68.1

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$141.29

Value

$113.74

PnL

-$7.02

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.41

Value

$96.17

PnL

-$2.24

Record

59%

1689-1190 (2879)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.03

Value

$32.08

PnL

-$0.95

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$9.78

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.77

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$1.05

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$1.54

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.22

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.54

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.34

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.44

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$24.84

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$5.55

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.06

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.84

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.