Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on November 2?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 13¢ · $38 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$37.74
-$4.03
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $24.04 | $21.9 | -$2.14 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $13.8 | $13.8 | -$2.12 | 55% 561-452 (1013) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $3.08 | $2.04 | +$0.23 | 57% 17245-12903 (30148) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.