Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 29?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $240 held · ends Oct 29

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$240.3

Combined PnL

$5.96

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 89¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$239.19

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$5.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.11

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.77

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 80¢	$114.7	$110	-$2.43	28% 280-709 (989)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$72.36	$77.72	+$5.35	51% 577-548 (1125)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$45	$47.49	+$2.5	61% 20632-13069 (33701)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.2	$3.98	-$0.23	50% 1642-1626 (3268)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.35	$0.65	+$0.3	61% 1571-1019 (2590)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.47	$0.47	+$0.47	35% 14791-26919 (41710)

Istaroth

Invested

$114.7

Value

$110

PnL

-$2.43

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$72.36

Value

$77.72

PnL

+$5.35

Record

51%

577-548 (1125)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$47.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

61%

20632-13069 (33701)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

1642-1626 (3268)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.3

Record

61%

1571-1019 (2590)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.