Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 7?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 99¢ · $470 held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$469.53

Combined PnL

$281.37

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 99.3¢

+123% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$465.84

Total Shares496

Combined PnL+$25.42

No3 traders

Total Value$3.69

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$255.95

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 42.4¢	$184.4	$409.1	+$21.06	37% 903-1557 (2460)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$32.65	$30.3	-$2.35	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$7.5	$23.5	+$4.5	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$2.94	+$2.21	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$10.25	$1.4	-$8.85	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$16.66	$1.29	+$270.17	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$6.37	$1	-$5.37	61% 687-436 (1123)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$184.4

Value

$409.1

PnL

+$21.06

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.65

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$2.35

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$2.21

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$8.85

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$16.66

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$270.17

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

PnL

-$5.37

Record

61%

687-436 (1123)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.