Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 6?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$0.51
-$33.97
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $10.09 | $0.24 | -$9.86 | 40% 847-1254 (2101) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $9.51 | $0.1 | -$9.32 | 72% 13933-5547 (19480) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $6.12 | $0.07 | -$7.48 | 13% 541-3590 (4131) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $20.33 | $0.04 | -$2.21 | 30% 475-1117 (1592) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $1.37 | $0.02 | -$1.35 | 53% 12559-10942 (23501) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $1.91 | $0.02 | -$1.89 | 31% 510-1143 (1653) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $1.04 | $0.01 | -$1.03 | 37% 4057-6782 (10839) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.85 | $0.01 | -$0.84 | 31% 519-1157 (1676) |
Invested
$10.09
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$9.86
Record
40%
847-1254 (2101)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.51
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$9.32
Record
72%
13933-5547 (19480)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$6.12
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$7.48
Record
13%
541-3590 (4131)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.21
Record
30%
475-1117 (1592)
Invested
$1.37
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.35
Record
53%
12559-10942 (23501)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.89
Record
31%
510-1143 (1653)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.03
Record
37%
4057-6782 (10839)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.84
Record
31%
519-1157 (1676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.