Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 15?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $204 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$203.82

Combined PnL

-$38.06

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$202.84

Total Shares203

Combined PnL+$1

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.98

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$39.06

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$73.11	$73.62	+$0.51	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$47.49	$47.54	+$0.05	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.1	$39.25	+$0.15	47% 887-1007 (1894)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.99	$14.95	-$0.04	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.99	+$0.09	34% 352-671 (1023)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.81	$9.99	+$0.18	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.04	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.64	$0.49	-$12.15	49% 854-884 (1738)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$124.09	$0.26	-$16.75	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$45.27	$0.21	-$8.7	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.11	$0.02	-$1.46	36% 1626-2854 (4480)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$73.11

Value

$73.62

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$47.49

Value

$47.54

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$39.1

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$14.99

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.09

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.64

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$12.15

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.09

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$16.75

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.27

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$8.7

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.46

Record

36%

1626-2854 (4480)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.