Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 15?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $423 held · ended Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$423.48

Combined PnL

-$5.23

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 98.1¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$423.48

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$5.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.5¢	$158.54	$157.68	-$0.86	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$53.01	$52.34	-$0.67	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$40.01	$39.69	-$0.32	47% 887-1007 (1894)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$78.8	$39.2	-$3.06	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$38.98	$38.98	+$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$29.52	$29.36	-$0.16	60% 874-593 (1467)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$24.6	$24.46	-$0.14	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$14.79	$14.88	+$0.09	35% 330-600 (930)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$12.08	$12.02	-$0.07	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$7.5	$7.44	-$0.05	51% 945-892 (1837)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.91	$4.96	+$0.05	33% 83-166 (249)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	99% 1609-24 (1633)

cigarettes

Invested

$158.54

Value

$157.68

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$53.01

Value

$52.34

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$40.01

Value

$39.69

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$78.8

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$3.06

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$38.98

Value

$38.98

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$29.52

Value

$29.36

PnL

-$0.16

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$0.09

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.