Back to Markets
NoYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on November 11?
Resolved No. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 88%
Total Value
$95
Combined PnL
-$47.94
Smart Money Signal
Yes
7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$95
Total Shares95
Combined PnL+$0.09
Yes7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares528
Combined PnL-$48.04
No — 13%Yes — 87%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $94.91 | $95 | +$0.09 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.91 | — | -$15.91 | 45% 492-612 (1104) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $13.2 | — | -$13.2 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.34 | — | -$9.34 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.64 | — | -$3.64 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.79 | — | -$2.79 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.71 | — | -$1.71 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 27% 943-2537 (3480) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$94.91
Value
$95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100Invested
$15.91
Value
—
PnL
-$15.91
Record
45%
492-612 (1104)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
—
PnL
-$13.2
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$9.34
Value
—
PnL
-$9.34
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
—
PnL
-$3.64
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$2.79
Value
—
PnL
-$2.79
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.71
Value
—
PnL
-$1.71
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
NO
northdrawerCTR<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
27%
943-2537 (3480)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0x67bfbcc8...7ed9d0
Slug
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-11-2026-51forbelow