Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$242.4

Combined PnL

-$1.68

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$241.86

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$2.15

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$0.47

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$124.63	$123.19	-$1.44	2% 3-147 (150)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$31.29	$30.96	-$0.33	46% 57-67 (124)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.57	-$0.31	16% 20-106 (126)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.57	-$0.31	3% 4-142 (146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.86	+$0.06	53% 87-77 (164)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.98	$6.9	-$0.08	77% 44-13 (57)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.59	$6.51	-$0.08	17% 21-105 (126)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$4.96	$5.31	+$0.35	56% 49-38 (87)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.07	$0.54	+$0.47	— 2-17 (19)

god83743894

Invested

$124.63

Value

$123.19

PnL

-$1.44

Record

3-147 (150)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$31.29

Value

$30.96

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

57-67 (124)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.57

PnL

-$0.31

Record

16%

20-106 (126)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.57

PnL

-$0.31

Record

4-142 (146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.98

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$0.08

Record

17%

21-105 (126)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.35

Record

56%

49-38 (87)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.47

Record

—

2-17 (19)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.