Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 7?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $364 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$363.61
$139.63
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 14.7¢ | $29.85 | $124.87 | +$140.7 | 38% 7384-11865 (19249) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.89 | $19.98 | +$0.09 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $17 | $0.08 | -$1.17 | 28% 3038-7860 (10898) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 17% 4528-22232 (26760) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 | 36% 1176-2127 (3303) |
Invested
$29.85
Value
$124.87
PnL
+$140.7
Record
38%
7384-11865 (19249)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
Invested
$17
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.17
Record
28%
3038-7860 (10898)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
17%
4528-22232 (26760)
Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
1176-2127 (3303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.