Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 10?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 28¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 10

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$142.99

Combined PnL

$19.33

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$84.99

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$9.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$57.79

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$10.22

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 28.4¢	$52.45	$59.2	+$6.75	10% 15-136 (151)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 59.9¢	$34.9	$40.79	+$5.9	65% 43-23 (66)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$12.68	$17	+$4.33	53% 29-26 (55)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 34.8¢	$9.14	$8.41	-$0.73	44% 47-60 (107)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 25.5¢	$4.43	$5.56	+$1.13	53% 87-77 (164)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$3.2	$4.1	+$0.9	6% 6-91 (97)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$2.71	$3.21	+$0.5	46% 57-67 (124)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.98	$2.27	+$0.28	45% 37-46 (83)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.96	$2.24	+$0.28	77% 44-13 (57)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$52.45

Value

$59.2

PnL

+$6.75

Record

10%

15-136 (151)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.9

Value

$40.79

PnL

+$5.9

Record

65%

43-23 (66)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.68

Value

$17

PnL

+$4.33

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$9.14

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$0.73

Record

44%

47-60 (107)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$1.13

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

6-91 (97)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.5

Record

46%

57-67 (124)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.28

Record

45%

37-46 (83)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.28

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.