Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $436 held · ended Nov 1

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$435.9

Combined PnL

-$26.34

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 96.9¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$431.98

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$23.1

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.92

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$3.24

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.8¢	$372.93	$341.85	-$31.08	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$82.15	$90.13	+$7.98	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.78	$2.56	-$0.61	54% 467-391 (858)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$3.99	$1.36	-$2.63	50% 1908-1873 (3781)

241532532432

Invested

$372.93

Value

$341.85

PnL

-$31.08

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.15

Value

$90.13

PnL

+$7.98

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$0.61

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$2.63

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.