Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 31?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 63¢ · $822 held · ends Oct 31

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$821.58

Combined PnL

$249.31

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 63¢

+54% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$649.64

Total Shares973

Combined PnL+$251.27

No1 trader

Total Value$46.73

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$1.96

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 36.4¢	$294.35	$545.56	+$251.22	47% 665-744 (1409)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$128.93	$125.21	-$1.84	20% 312-1273 (1585)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.5¢	$72.06	$78.88	+$6.83
└ No leg	Noavg 43.8¢	$54.84	$46.33	-$8.67
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 63¢	$104.03	$104.08	+$0.05	55% 410-333 (743)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$48.69	$46.73	-$1.96	59% 1805-1255 (3060)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$294.35

Value

$545.56

PnL

+$251.22

Record

47%

665-744 (1409)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$128.93

Value

$125.21

PnL

-$1.84

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

Both legs:

Invested

$104.03

Value

$104.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

410-333 (743)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$48.69

Value

$46.73

PnL

-$1.96

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.