Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $227 held · ended Oct 27

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$226.93

Combined PnL

-$2.18

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 98.6¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$179.24

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$10.75

Yes3 traders

Total Value$47.7

Total Shares295

Combined PnL-$12.93

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 93.4¢	$123.69	$113.85	+$4.34	57% 12904-9820 (22724)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$54.12	$60.45	+$6.33	61% 20509-12859 (33368)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.28	$30.74	-$9.42	55% 217-178 (395)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.23	$14.12	-$2.82	61% 1527-966 (2493)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.86	$4.93	+$0.07	36% 14556-26000 (40556)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$3.53	$2.84	-$0.7	53% 6231-5470 (11701)

ghorrock

Invested

$123.69

Value

$113.85

PnL

+$4.34

Record

57%

12904-9820 (22724)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$54.12

Value

$60.45

PnL

+$6.33

Record

61%

20509-12859 (33368)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$9.42

Record

55%

217-178 (395)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$14.12

PnL

-$2.82

Record

61%

1527-966 (2493)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

14556-26000 (40556)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

6231-5470 (11701)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.