Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 9?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $24 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$23.73

Combined PnL

-$55.05

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$23.42

Total Shares23

Combined PnL+$0.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares613

Combined PnL-$55.43

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$19.93	$19.92	+$0.38	53% 86-75 (161)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	100% 30-0 (30)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$50.46	$0.28	-$50.18	0% 0-29 (29)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.27	$0.03	-$5.24	39% 51-81 (132)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.93

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

30-0 (30)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.46

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$50.18

Record

0-29 (29)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.24

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.