Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 10?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 95¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 10

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$428

Combined PnL

$1.19

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 95¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$402.99

Total Shares419

Combined PnL+$8.34

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.02

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$7.15

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 94.8¢	$213.34	$218.25	+$4.91	16% 20-106 (126)
Lucerys	Noavg 94.8¢	$111.47	$111.74	+$0.27	77% 44-13 (57)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$27.24	$18.99	-$8.26	55% 29-24 (53)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$18.12	$17.93	-$0.19	38% 93-154 (247)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$14.96	$17.27	+$2.3	6% 6-91 (97)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93¢	$11.57	$12.07	+$0.5	80% 61-15 (76)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.41	$9.41	+$0	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$9.43	$9.39	-$0.05	45% 53-66 (119)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$6.34	$6.94	+$0.6	68% 43-20 (63)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$4.62	$5.77	+$1.15	— 0-14 (14)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.31	$0.26	-$0.05	39% 51-81 (132)

quietparcel

Invested

$213.34

Value

$218.25

PnL

+$4.91

Record

16%

20-106 (126)

Lucerys

Invested

$111.47

Value

$111.74

PnL

+$0.27

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.24

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$8.26

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.12

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$0.19

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$2.3

Record

6-91 (97)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.57

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$0.5

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

53-66 (119)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.34

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$0.6

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$1.15

Record

—

0-14 (14)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.