Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 7?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 11¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 7

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$96.61

Combined PnL

$31.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$57.83

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$29.78

No3 traders

Total Value$38.78

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$1.94

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$14.57	$46.04	+$31.47	39% 881-1391 (2272)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$27.73	$29.78	+$2.05	58% 21639-15721 (37360)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$10.53	$8.12	-$2.32	56% 771-600 (1371)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$4.57	$4.53	-$0.04	36% 1170-2114 (3284)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.48	-$0.08	70% 14100-5963 (20063)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$2.51	$2.4	-$0.11	42% 2412-3345 (5757)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$7.09	$1.27	+$0.73	19% 2961-12528 (15489)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.57

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$31.47

Record

39%

881-1391 (2272)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.73

Value

$29.78

PnL

+$2.05

Record

58%

21639-15721 (37360)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.53

Value

$8.12

PnL

-$2.32

Record

56%

771-600 (1371)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

1170-2114 (3284)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.08

Record

70%

14100-5963 (20063)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.11

Record

42%

2412-3345 (5757)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.09

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.73

Record

19%

2961-12528 (15489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.