Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 4?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$174.83
-$1.64
97.8¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.1¢ | $113.82 | $111.91 | -$1.91 | 79% 11600-3000 (14600) |
 balthazar<$100 | No | $30.78 | $30.78 | +$0.43 | 54% 26628-22317 (48945) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $22.31 | $22.13 | -$0.18 | 43% 2822-3734 (6556) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.81 | +$0.01 | 52% 456-427 (883) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $4.54 | $4.55 | +$0.01 | 57% 17612-13142 (30754) |
LucerysInvested
$113.82
Value
$111.91
PnL
-$1.91
Record
79%
11600-3000 (14600)
balthazar<$100Invested
$30.78
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
26628-22317 (48945)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$22.13
PnL
-$0.18
Record
43%
2822-3734 (6556)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
456-427 (883)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
17612-13142 (30754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.