Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 7?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 37¢ · $782 held · ends Nov 7

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$781.82

Combined PnL

$55.35

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 37¢

-24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$221.33

Total Shares586

Combined PnL+$45.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.5

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$9.82

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$231.09	$425.68	+$101.77	38% 887-1421 (2308)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.1¢	$31.63	$232.46	+$108.01
└ No leg	Noavg 71.6¢	$373.88	$193.22	-$6.24
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$122.57	$121.31	-$0.93	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$37.09	$75.28	+$38.25
└ No leg	Noavg 68.4¢	$85.15	$46.03	-$39.18
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 67.5¢	$90.66	$89.37	-$1.29	56% 781-606 (1387)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$21.46	$60.67	+$81.46	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$38.07	$21.89	-$16.18	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$20.2	$14.8	-$5.4	52% 31275-29168 (60443)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$3.68	$13.5	+$9.82	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$13.56	$12.48	-$1.08	53% 12756-11431 (24187)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$24.06	$8.55	-$5.53	53% 4565-4056 (8621)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$23.18	$7.26	-$2.72	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$5.6	$3.7	-$1.9	53% 8690-7793 (16483)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.44	$2.61	-$1.83	36% 1176-2127 (3303)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$231.09

Value

$425.68

PnL

+$101.77

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

Both legs:

Yes$31.636.1¢+$108.01

No$373.8871.6¢-$6.24

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$122.57

Value

$121.31

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Both legs:

Yes$37.0931¢+$38.25

No$85.1568.4¢-$39.18

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$90.66

Value

$89.37

PnL

-$1.29

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$21.46

Value

$60.67

PnL

+$81.46

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$38.07

Value

$21.89

PnL

-$16.18

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$5.4

Record

52%

31275-29168 (60443)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.68

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$9.82

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$13.56

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

12756-11431 (24187)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$24.06

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$5.53

Record

53%

4565-4056 (8621)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$23.18

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$2.72

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$1.9

Record

53%

8690-7793 (16483)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$1.83

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.