Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 4?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 49¢ · $736 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$736.09
$3.33
49.6¢ → 48.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $329.34 | $321.08 | -$8.25 | 42% 772-1070 (1842) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 54.6¢ | $284.33 | $281.53 | -$0.69 | 16% 426-2258 (2684) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.6¢ | $153.61 | $152.03 | -$1.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $128.58 | $129.5 | +$0.93 | |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $78.34 | $91.78 | +$13.45 | 79% 11645-3073 (14718) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $19.6 | $18.4 | -$1.2 | 53% 8987-8029 (17016) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $14.02 | $13.25 | -$0.77 | 57% 17871-13366 (31237) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $9.58 | $9.69 | +$0.1 | 48% 2092-2259 (4351) |
Invested
$329.34
Value
$321.08
PnL
-$8.25
Record
42%
772-1070 (1842)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$284.33
Value
$281.53
PnL
-$0.69
Record
16%
426-2258 (2684)
Both legs:
Lucerys<$100Invested
$78.34
Value
$91.78
PnL
+$13.45
Record
79%
11645-3073 (14718)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
8987-8029 (17016)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$13.25
PnL
-$0.77
Record
57%
17871-13366 (31237)
Invested
$9.58
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
2092-2259 (4351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.