Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 5?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $35 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$34.9
$254.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $41.98 | $20.62 | +$5.03 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $7.74 | $9 | +$1.26 | 54% 10589-9151 (19740) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $5.01 | $5.26 | +$0.26 | 58% 6728-4790 (11518) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $11.12 | $0.02 | +$247.84 | 39% 1300-2076 (3376) |
Invested
$41.98
Value
$20.62
PnL
+$5.03
Record
58%
21213-15412 (36625)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$9
PnL
+$1.26
Record
54%
10589-9151 (19740)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
6728-4790 (11518)
Invested
$11.12
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$247.84
Record
39%
1300-2076 (3376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.