Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $239 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$239.14
$13.45
50¢ → 52¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $88.23 | $90.48 | +$4.86 | 50% 1895-1867 (3762) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $82.3 | $85.72 | +$3.42 | 59% 1908-1339 (3247) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $54.88 | $58.24 | +$5.04 | 47% 695-778 (1473) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $4.57 | $4.7 | +$0.13 | 53% 6677-5876 (12553) |
Invested
$88.23
Value
$90.48
PnL
+$4.86
Record
50%
1895-1867 (3762)
Invested
$82.3
Value
$85.72
PnL
+$3.42
Record
59%
1908-1339 (3247)
Invested
$54.88
Value
$58.24
PnL
+$5.04
Record
47%
695-778 (1473)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.13
Record
53%
6677-5876 (12553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.