Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 3?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 46¢ · $849 held · ends Nov 3

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$849.08

Combined PnL

$163.56

Smart Money Entry

32.4¢ → 45.5¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$649.16

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL+$201.02

No9 traders

Total Value$199.92

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$37.46

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$355.09	$532.53	+$177.44	49% 728-747 (1475)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$75.85	$98.4	+$19.48	63% 1692-993 (2685)
BI Bilberry	Noavg 76.1¢	$125.54	$92.43	-$33.11	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 55¢	$60.5	$57.75	-$2.75	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 52¢	$15.6	$15.75	+$0.15	49% 7454-7779 (15233)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$12.4	$11.58	-$0.82	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$10.35	$10.01	-$0.34	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$7.12	$6.85	-$0.27	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.27	$6.66	+$4.92	41% 943-1365 (2308)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$6.37	$5.91	-$0.47	35% 710-1327 (2037)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$5.69	$5.38	-$0.31	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 58¢	$3.56	$3.22	-$0.34	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.63	-$0.02	55% 5875-4772 (10647)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$355.09

Value

$532.53

PnL

+$177.44

Record

49%

728-747 (1475)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.85

Value

$98.4

PnL

+$19.48

Record

63%

1692-993 (2685)

Bilberry

Invested

$125.54

Value

$92.43

PnL

-$33.11

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$60.5

Value

$57.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

7454-7779 (15233)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$0.82

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$0.34

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.27

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$4.92

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.47

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$0.31

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.34

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.