Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $344 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$344.1
-$139.56
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 76¢ | $150.42 | $195.84 | +$39.76 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $50.77 | $58.01 | +$7.24 | 54% 7712-6458 (14170) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $162.57 | $48 | -$186.97 | 47% 750-838 (1588) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.97 | $42.26 | +$0.41 | 41% 943-1365 (2308) |
Invested
$150.42
Value
$195.84
PnL
+$39.76
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$50.77
Value
$58.01
PnL
+$7.24
Record
54%
7712-6458 (14170)
Invested
$162.57
Value
$48
PnL
-$186.97
Record
47%
750-838 (1588)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$42.26
PnL
+$0.41
Record
41%
943-1365 (2308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.