Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 16?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $41 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$41.38

Combined PnL

-$8.21

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$40.43

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.94

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$8.4

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$15.15	$15.14	-$0.01	42% 1702-2333 (4035)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$9.72	$9.95	+$0.23	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.19	$5.18	-$0.01	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.13	$5.12	-$0.01	57% 851-641 (1492)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.05	$5.04	-$0.01	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.26	$0.72	-$6.54	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.33	$0.11	-$0.83	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.09	-$0.82	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.02	-$0.21	38% 323-524 (847)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

1702-2333 (4035)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$6.54

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.33

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.83

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.82

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.21

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.