Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 16?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $61 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$61.24

Combined PnL

-$20.15

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$60.91

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$20.08

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.96	-$0.02	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.28	$15.04	-$0.23	38% 323-524 (847)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$10.13	$10.32	+$0.19	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.24	$5.24	-$0	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.21	$5.21	-$0	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.15	$5.15	-$0	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.26	$0.16	-$7.1	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.14	$0.13	-$5.81	28% 3305-8424 (11729)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.89	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.66	$0.01	-$1.71	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.01	-$4.58	26% 605-1747 (2352)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$15.28

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$7.1

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.14

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$5.81

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.71

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.58

Record

26%

605-1747 (2352)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.