Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $20 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$20.13

Combined PnL

-$25.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$19.99

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares285

Combined PnL-$25.75

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.26	$0.04	-$7.22	42% 5249-7280 (12529)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.44	$0.04	-$6.4	28% 3331-8552 (11883)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.03	-$4.6	26% 612-1773 (2385)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.8	$0.02	-$3.77	31% 1134-2479 (3613)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.51	$0.01	-$1.51	36% 1648-2903 (4551)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0	-$0.64	40% 2685-4008 (6693)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.47	$0	-$0.47	23% 814-2712 (3526)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0	-$0.23	38% 329-526 (855)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.22

Record

42%

5249-7280 (12529)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.44

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.4

Record

28%

3331-8552 (11883)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.6

Record

26%

612-1773 (2385)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.77

Record

31%

1134-2479 (3613)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

36%

1648-2903 (4551)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

PnL

-$0.64

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

23%

814-2712 (3526)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

329-526 (855)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.