Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on November 16?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$106.9
-$0.85
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $30.98 | $30.98 | +$0 | 36% 355-622 (977) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $30.28 | $30.33 | +$0.05 | 53% 7602-6693 (14295) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.4 | $15.39 | -$0.01 | 50% 975-969 (1944) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.02 | $15.01 | -$0.01 | 42% 1715-2341 (4056) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.03 | $5.03 | -$0 | 50% 910-924 (1834) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $4.98 | +$0 | 29% 1121-2791 (3912) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.22 | $3.22 | -$0 | 52% 969-886 (1855) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.86 | $1.86 | -$0 | 52% 994-930 (1924) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.04 | -$0.87 | 38% 3874-6342 (10216) |
Invested
$30.98
Value
$30.98
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
355-622 (977)
Invested
$30.28
Value
$30.33
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
7602-6693 (14295)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$15.39
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
975-969 (1944)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
1715-2341 (4056)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
910-924 (1834)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
1121-2791 (3912)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.22
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
969-886 (1855)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
994-930 (1924)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.87
Record
38%
3874-6342 (10216)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
smallreceipt
No — $30.98
cigarettes
No — $30.33
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $15.39
haveagoodday
No — $15.01
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $5.03
graynotebook19
No — $4.98
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $3.22
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $1.86
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0.04