Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (93%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 15?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 7.5¢ · $499 held · ended Nov 15

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$499.23

Combined PnL

$297.8

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$491.24

Total Shares514

Combined PnL+$317.31

No9 traders

Total Value$7.99

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$19.51

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 17.3¢	$53.7	$295.41	+$241.71	43% 56-75 (131)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$94.88	$91.66	-$3.22	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$4.62	$42.71	+$38.09	68% 89-42 (131)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$12.69	$37.93	+$34.91	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 74.7¢	$12.73	$16.05	+$3.32	51% 945-892 (1837)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$4.99	$7.48	+$2.49	38% 329-529 (858)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$7.22	$2.89	-$4.33	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$10.18	$1.07	-$9.11	57% 836-638 (1474)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$2	$0.8	+$2.79	65% 4374-2391 (6765)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.86	$0.77	-$0.09	52% 909-844 (1753)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 83¢	$129.14	$0.77	-$2.01	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$3.83	$0.69	-$3.14	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.61	$0.49	-$0.12	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.82	$0.33	-$0.49	58% 864-619 (1483)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$12.62	$0.2	-$3	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$53.7

Value

$295.41

PnL

+$241.71

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.88

Value

$91.66

PnL

-$3.22

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$42.71

PnL

+$38.09

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

$37.93

PnL

+$34.91

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.73

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$3.32

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.99

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$2.49

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$4.33

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$10.18

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$9.11

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$2.79

Record

65%

4374-2391 (6765)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$129.14

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$2.01

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$3.14

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.49

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.62

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.