Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $149 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$148.64

Combined PnL

$28.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$124.1

Total Shares373

Combined PnL+$20.66

No4 traders

Total Value$24.54

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$8.07

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 28.6¢	$135.65	$59.48	+$8.35	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$29.15	$20.01	-$9.14	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.18	$17.67	+$12.49	47% 887-1007 (1894)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$11.78	$12.8	+$1.02	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 67¢	$8.2	$12.23	+$4.03	51% 945-892 (1837)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.19	$7.47	+$5.28	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.38	$5.28	+$1.9	50% 919-925 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.5	$5.11	+$3.61	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.47	$5.03	+$1.56	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 71¢	$1.42	$2	+$0.58	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.52	$1.56	-$0.96	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$135.65

Value

$59.48

PnL

+$8.35

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.15

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$9.14

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.18

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$12.49

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.78

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$1.02

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$4.03

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$7.47

PnL

+$5.28

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$1.9

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$3.61

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$1.56

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

PnL

+$0.58

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.96

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.