Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $183 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$183.08

Combined PnL

-$0.27

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$182.98

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$0.44

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$71.98	$71.98	-$0	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$48.41	$48.36	-$0.05	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.44	$29.45	+$0	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$12.11	$12.2	+$0.1	49% 854-884 (1738)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$7.94	$7.98	+$0.04	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$6.92	$7.01	+$0.09	52% 909-844 (1753)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6	$5.99	-$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.46	$0.05	-$0.41	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.04	$0.02	-$0.03	40% 2676-3963 (6639)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$71.98

Value

$71.98

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$48.41

Value

$48.36

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.