Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 95¢ · $190 held · ended Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$189.85

Combined PnL

$85.64

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 95.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$184.48

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$6.48

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.36

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$79.16

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$74.37	$73.16	-$1.2	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$46.98	$50.32	+$3.34	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$19.98	$20.68	+$0.7	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$18.33	$19.38	+$1.05	52% 909-844 (1753)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.69	$9.21	+$0.52	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$4.05	$6.9	+$2.86	58% 864-619 (1483)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$30.67	$4.36	+$81.04	42% 803-1100 (1903)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.5	$2.46	-$0.04	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$3.12	$2.37	-$0.74	60% 874-593 (1467)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.43	$0.78	-$0.41	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.6¢	$1.68	$0.22	-$1.46	51% 945-892 (1837)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$74.37

Value

$73.16

PnL

-$1.2

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.98

Value

$50.32

PnL

+$3.34

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.33

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$1.05

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.69

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$2.86

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.67

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$81.04

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.04

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.74

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.43

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.41

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.46

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.