Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 10?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 64¢ · $512 held · ends Nov 10

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$511.59

Combined PnL

$63.66

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 63.5¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$421.42

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$63.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16.21

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.53

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 56.9¢	$142.39	$162.6	+$20.21	10% 15-136 (151)
24 241532532432	Noavg 49.1¢	$98.7	$126.76	+$28.05	55% 29-24 (53)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$73.43	$83.73	+$10.3	77% 44-13 (57)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$79.37	$73.96	-$5.41	68% 43-20 (63)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$48.5	$53.49	+$4.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.5¢	$30.87	$20.47	-$10.4
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$14.43	$14.58	+$0.14	— 0-14 (14)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63¢	$15.76	$12.69	+$1.03	53% 86-75 (161)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64¢	$12.08	$11.98	-$0.09	38% 93-154 (247)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$8.87	$11.21	+$2.35	6% 6-91 (97)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$6.65	$7.85	+$1.2	80% 61-15 (76)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.53	$4.6	+$0.07	28% 55-139 (194)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.24	$1.63	+$0.39	39% 51-81 (132)

graynotebook19

Invested

$142.39

Value

$162.6

PnL

+$20.21

Record

10%

15-136 (151)

241532532432

Invested

$98.7

Value

$126.76

PnL

+$28.05

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$73.43

Value

$83.73

PnL

+$10.3

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$79.37

Value

$73.96

PnL

-$5.41

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

Both legs:

No$48.562.1¢+$4.99

Yes$30.8747.5¢-$10.4

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.43

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0.14

Record

—

0-14 (14)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.76

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$0.09

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$8.87

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$2.35

Record

6-91 (97)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$1.2

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.07

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.39

Record

39%

51-81 (132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.