Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 10?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 91¢ · $592 held · ends Nov 10

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$591.72

Combined PnL

$2.25

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 90.8¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$586.99

Total Shares638

Combined PnL+$3.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.73

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$0.98

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 92¢	$207	$207.9	+$0.9	3% 4-142 (146)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 91.5¢	$105.21	$90.2	+$0.62	53% 86-75 (161)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$86.18	$86.19	+$0.01	77% 44-13 (57)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$36.42	$38.73	+$2.31	68% 43-20 (63)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$35.82	$36.73	+$0.33	— 0-14 (14)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92¢	$31.84	$31.57	-$0.27	44% 46-59 (105)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$27.75	$27.24	-$0.51	46% 42-50 (92)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$22.46	$23.25	+$0.79	6% 9-142 (151)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$17.51	$17.23	-$0.28	38% 93-154 (247)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$17.17	$16.45	-$0.72	6% 6-91 (97)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.45	$11.5	+$0.05	80% 61-15 (76)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$5.17	$4.27	-$0.9	55% 29-24 (53)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$0.54	$0.46	-$0.08	43% 34-45 (79)

haveagoodday

Invested

$207

Value

$207.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

4-142 (146)

ghorrock

Invested

$105.21

Value

$90.2

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$86.18

Value

$86.19

PnL

+$0.01

Record

77%

44-13 (57)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$36.42

Value

$38.73

PnL

+$2.31

Record

68%

43-20 (63)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$35.82

Value

$36.73

PnL

+$0.33

Record

—

0-14 (14)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.84

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$0.27

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$0.51

Record

46%

42-50 (92)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$22.46

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$0.79

Record

9-142 (151)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.51

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$0.28

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$16.45

PnL

-$0.72

Record

6-91 (97)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.45

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.9

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.08

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.2%

90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.