Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on November 8?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 29¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$413.22
$156.02
17¢ → 29¢
+71% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $233.94 | $366.09 | +$132.16 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $3.76 | $19.77 | +$16.01 | 19% 2967-12558 (15525) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $15.8 | $14.32 | -$1.48 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $5.56 | $13.03 | +$9.33 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$233.94
Value
$366.09
PnL
+$132.16
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
$19.77
PnL
+$16.01
Record
19%
2967-12558 (15525)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$14.32
PnL
-$1.48
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$13.03
PnL
+$9.33
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.