Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 63¢ · $289 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$288.67
-$97.16
44.8¢ → 63¢
+41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $142.86 | $135.72 | -$7.13 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 46¢ | $88.67 | $100.29 | -$4.77 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $317.38 | $52.66 | -$85.26 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.