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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on October 31?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$3.48
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares240
Combined PnL-$3.48
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.68 | — | -$3.48 | 59% 1862-1301 (3163) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21225-13548 (34773) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6624-5811 (12435) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$3.48
Record
59%
1862-1301 (3163)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21225-13548 (34773)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6624-5811 (12435)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb0532567...921a57
Slug
highest-temperature-in-milan-on-october-31-2026-19corhigher