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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on October 29?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$3.93
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares97
Combined PnL-$3.93
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.93 | — | -$3.93 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20901-13305 (34206) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1728-1714 (3442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15176-27300 (42476) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$3.93
Value
—
PnL
-$3.93
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20901-13305 (34206)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1728-1714 (3442)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15176-27300 (42476)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc14e5c95...57bd18
Slug
highest-temperature-in-milan-on-october-29-2026-20corhigher