Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 9?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 9

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$127.51

Combined PnL

$11.45

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 98.7¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$121.66

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$13.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.85

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$2.38

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$48.23	$24.55	+$7.41	57% 25501-19040 (44541)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 76¢	$18.81	$24.03	+$5.21	20% 978-3834 (4812)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$23.54	$23.89	+$0.35	46% 6200-7413 (13613)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$21.27	$21.23	-$0.04	43% 5587-7267 (12854)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$13.27	$14.12	+$0.85	55% 26060-21350 (47410)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$11.53	$9.87	-$0.03	47% 47634-54192 (101826)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$2.09	$5.4	-$1.75	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$16.39	$3.98	+$0.07	46% 6903-8164 (15067)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$0.41	$0.29	-$0.12	23% 8574-28993 (37567)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.6	$0.14	-$0.46	69% 16769-7377 (24146)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$12.37	$0.02	-$0.05	22% 3475-12090 (15565)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$48.23

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$7.41

Record

57%

25501-19040 (44541)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$5.21

Record

20%

978-3834 (4812)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$23.54

Value

$23.89

PnL

+$0.35

Record

46%

6200-7413 (13613)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$21.27

Value

$21.23

PnL

-$0.04

Record

43%

5587-7267 (12854)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.27

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

26060-21350 (47410)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.53

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

47634-54192 (101826)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.75

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$16.39

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

6903-8164 (15067)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.12

Record

23%

8574-28993 (37567)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.46

Record

69%

16769-7377 (24146)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.37

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.05

Record

22%

3475-12090 (15565)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.