Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 6?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $368 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$368.19
$28.82
85.2¢ → 93¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+29 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $158.13 | $169.92 | +$14.91 | 32% 2226-4728 (6954) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $60.53 | $66.99 | +$6.46 | 17% 4503-22046 (26549) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $60.84 | $64.31 | +$3.47 | 58% 21328-15480 (36808) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $50.09 | $53.69 | +$3.6 | 53% 23775-20945 (44720) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $11 | $11.43 | +$0.38 | 53% 4101-3668 (7769) |
Invested
$158.13
Value
$169.92
PnL
+$14.91
Record
32%
2226-4728 (6954)
2B9S<$100Invested
$60.53
Value
$66.99
PnL
+$6.46
Record
17%
4503-22046 (26549)
Invested
$60.84
Value
$64.31
PnL
+$3.47
Record
58%
21328-15480 (36808)
Invested
$50.09
Value
$53.69
PnL
+$3.6
Record
53%
23775-20945 (44720)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.43
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
4101-3668 (7769)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.