Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 9?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 56¢ · $318 held · ends Nov 9

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$317.64

Combined PnL

$174.87

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 56¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$245.87

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$77.91

No5 traders

Total Value$71.77

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$96.96

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 32.5¢	$104.64	$178.55	+$78.99	20% 978-3834 (4812)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$66.54	$58.39	-$4.75	57% 923-700 (1623)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.4¢	$13.3	$31.53	-$1.18	55% 26032-21336 (47368)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 58.9¢	$29.44	$29.99	+$0.55	30% 35477-83899 (119376)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 6.6¢	$8.71	$6.35	+$102.2	46% 6644-7782 (14426)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$6.25	$5.8	-$0.45	23% 8572-28992 (37564)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$8.41	$2.92	-$0.21	46% 6187-7401 (13588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$22	$2.11	-$0.23	69% 16766-7371 (24137)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$13.24	$2	-$0.05	43% 18663-24360 (43023)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$104.64

Value

$178.55

PnL

+$78.99

Record

20%

978-3834 (4812)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$66.54

Value

$58.39

PnL

-$4.75

Record

57%

923-700 (1623)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.3

Value

$31.53

PnL

-$1.18

Record

55%

26032-21336 (47368)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.44

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.55

Record

30%

35477-83899 (119376)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$102.2

Record

46%

6644-7782 (14426)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.45

Record

23%

8572-28992 (37564)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$8.41

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

6187-7401 (13588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.23

Record

69%

16766-7371 (24137)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

18663-24360 (43023)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.