Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on November 2?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 49¢ · $660 held · ends Nov 2

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$659.8

Combined PnL

$135.15

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 49¢

+49% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$606.68

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL+$137.56

No8 traders

Total Value$53.11

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$2.41

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 28.6¢	$233.25	$363.33	+$130.09	48% 746-815 (1561)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$178.54	$176.59	-$27.77	55% 554-446 (1000)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$31.51	$66.76	+$35.25	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 51¢	$20.01	$20.01	-$0	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 53.6¢	$8.15	$7.75	-$0.39	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.6	$5.2	-$0.41	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.6	$5.19	-$0.41	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 51¢	$4.64	$4.64	+$0	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
BE berlinskies<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.99	$4.1	-$0.85	58% 6025-4386 (10411)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$3.93	$3.67	-$0.26	42% 938-1305 (2243)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.55	-$0.1	59% 218-153 (371)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$233.25

Value

$363.33

PnL

+$130.09

Record

48%

746-815 (1561)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.54

Value

$176.59

PnL

-$27.77

Record

55%

554-446 (1000)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.51

Value

$66.76

PnL

+$35.25

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.01

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$0.39

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.41

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$0.41

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

berlinskies<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

6025-4386 (10411)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.